Baldur's Gate 3
I'll cover by acts the events that are relevant, as well as discussing some of the pre-canon texts and dialogues that imply or state events that are only learned about through specific dialogue with the characters.
Known Sources
In Swen Vincke's AMA several years ago when the game was still in Early Access, he commented that the books they built the game on were primarily the Dungeon Master's Guide, the Player's Handbook, and Monster Manual.
Known Prequels
The Baldur's Gate 1 & Baldur's Gate 2 games, the Descent into Avernus campaign, and the Mindbreaker comics are definite prequels to the events of Baldur's Gate 3.
Possible prequels/backgrounds
I also posit that events from other previous Baldur's Gate entries can be considered as additional background. Characters and events only existing in Murder in Baldur's Gate do feature in BG3. There is a letter acquired on the Risen Road near the gnolls addressed from Brevek Faenor. I even found a flag that mentions Andar Beech, although it was about Father Lorgan. If some characters and their backgrounds were plucked purely from Murder in Baldur's Gate, I think considering them slightly relevant to BG3 is fine. However, I'm not claiming canon events from the campaigns, as the game writers made their own decisions about what should be canon and which direction characters should go.
Act 1
In the Blighted Village
We first learn of the plot when we find Barcus Wroot tied to a windmill in the Blighted Village. He's being tormented by Fezzerk and a band of goblins. Fezzerk's mission is to acquire hostages for the Absolute, and Barcus is intended to be one of them. After freeing Barcus, he reveals his own mission: to find and help his old friend, Wulbren Bongle, who he fears is in trouble. He plans to go to the Underdark.
There appear to be different interpretations, but based on Barcus' speak with dead dialogue, I believe he witnessed an altercation and was trailing Wulbren right from the moment after. This is because he mentioned "Flames in the dark" before saying "his amulet found bloodied." Barcus' Log does also mention "two flames." At the beginning of the game, the Absolute crisis has already begun in Baldur's gate. In Mindbreaker, people are already dying and transforming into illithid. We can hear Harpers chat about the danger of the city if going down the wrong alley, lines from Barcus about how the Ironhands have "nearly started an all-out war with the Gondians," and lines from Thulla indicating a "blood feud" between their two factions. Because the Ironhands are officially banned from working in Baldur's Gate, and many of the characters claim they're "rebels," "troublemakers," or "freedom fighters," they could always be possible targets. There are many possible reasons Wulbren and the Ironhands would have been fighting on their way out of the city for their next expedition.
In the Underdark
True Soul Nere and the rest of the cultists are on a mission from Ketheric to clear the debris from Grymforge leading to the Temple of Shar. When they arrive, they find the Ironhand gnomes on their own expedition and enslave them. The bridge from Grymforge to the temple turns out to be broken. While searching, there was a cave-in, and Nere and the gnome slaves are trapped. Many gnomes died in this cave-in and their bodies are being kicked into the lake. The surviving gnomes were put to work to dig. I'm unsure when in the timeline Philomeen set off her blast (I think two duergar say when it happened), but her and Thulla both escaped their captivity. Philomeen ran to protect and grab the runepowder barrel, Thulla ran for her freedom.
After arriving in the Underdark, the first Ironhand we meet is Thulla, who escaped her enslavement from the Absolute cult. Thulla put up quite a fight: she nabbed Thrinn's boots and fought and ran from a crew of duergar. The myconids are harboring her and protecting her from the duergar slavers. The myconids also reveal that the duergar killed their young. (I need to double check order of events)
Once the player leaves the myconid colony, there is a trail of corpses--myconid, deep gnome, and a couple duergar--leading down to the Deecrepit Village beside Ebonlake. At the village, Gekh Coal, Holvik, Novice Garmor, and Lurgan are looking for Thulla.
Grymforge is
Act 2
Many Act 2 options are different depending on player choices. If one's joined the Absolute, they won't encounter Barcus until later, if at all. They can choose to torment the Moonrise Towers prisoners or save them. But I'll attempt to be as factual to the situation outside player choice as possible.
If recruited, Barcus leaves the player's camp to scout ahead and finds himself at Last Light Inn.
At Moonrise, the three prisoners have been taken to be tortured, interrogated, and then used for parts for the Steel Watch if there's anything left to use.
Act 3
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